27 February 2006
CEPR, 90-98 Goswell Road, London EC1V 7RR - see map
Presentation and Discussion 17.30-18.30
Refreshments: 18.30- 19.00
The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and the World Economy and Finance Research Programme have the pleasure in hosting this discussion meeting.
Speaker: Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan & CEPR)
Discussant: David Vines (University of Oxford & CEPR)
The possibility of an Iranian oil embargo is looming on the horizon. This raises the question, once more, of how shortfalls in crude oil production caused by wars and other political events in the Middle East affect oil prices, economic growth and inflation in major industrialized countries. Public discussion of this question has been shaped by the economic experience of the 1970s and early 1980s. Our collective memory leaves no doubt that oil supply shocks are to blame for the economic malaise of the 1970s. An obvious concern is that history might repeat itself if a new oil supply shock were to occur. Drawing on new evidence, Lutz Kilian will re-examine the effects of previous OPEC oil supply disruptions on the G7 countries. The questions to be addressed include: Do oil supply shocks cause a sustained increase in inflation? Can we expect a recession following such a shock? How long will it take for the recession to set in and how deep and protracted will it be? Do oil shocks by necessity cause 'stagflation', a term coined in the 1970s to denote periods of economic stagnation as well as inflation?
If you would like to attend this meeting, please register at www.cepr.org/meets/ltm/1655 by Thursday 23 February or contact Sarah Doberska at CEPR, by email: sdoberska@cepr.org or telephone +44 (0) 20 7878 2908.